AI Forecasts
Machine-learned shipment volume projections and recovery break-even predictions.
Model
Tract Volume v3.2
MAPE (12mo)
4.8%
Signals
AFS · SAAR · Contracts
Last trained
2h ago · nightly
Select program
Ford F-150 Lightning
MY24MY25MY26MY27MY28
Cumulative recovery — solid = actual, dashed = AI forecast to EOP.
Recovery by model year
2022
—
2023
—
2024
Over
2025
Shipping
2026
Shipping
Contract
$124.0M
Recovered
$48.2M
Forecast (EOP)
$137.0M
Projected delta
$13.0M
AI narrative — Based on 14 months of AFS shipments, dealer inventory levels, and SAAR trend, Tract projects Ford F-150 Lightning will over-recover contract amortization by $13.0M by end of production. Break-even shifts to Nov 25.
